A majority of likely California voters remains opposed to Proposition 8, the November ballot measure that would eliminate same-sex marriage, according to a statewide survey released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Funded by the James Irvine Foundation, the poll found that 54 percent of the state's likely voters oppose Prop 8, while only 40 percent favor the anti-gay measure. It is the third poll to be released since May showing that a majority of voters oppose amending the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage.

The PPIC polling results are a slight increase in opposition to the anti-gay measure from a Field Poll released in July that found only 51 percent of likely voters intended to vote no on the initiative.

The latest survey results mirror a Field Poll released in May that found 54 percent of registered voters statewide oppose banning same-sex marriage.

In 2000 voters passed Prop 22, which amended the state's family code to ban recognition of same-sex marriages from other states, by a wide margin, with 61 percent in favor and 39 percent opposed. Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the San Francisco-based PPIC, cautioned that the opposition this year to Prop 8 does not indicate a "dramatic shift" in how voters' feel about the issue of same-sex marriage.

Asked whether they favor letting gay and lesbian couples marry, likely voters are evenly split (47 percent in favor, 47 percent opposed) and have been since August 2005, according to the PPIC.

In a statement about the poll results, Baldassare noted that how strongly voters feel about the issue of same-sex marriage is playing a role in the November outcome. A majority of likely voters (57 percent) in favor of Prop 8 say it is a very important issue to them, while less than half (44 percent) of those opposed to the measure consider it a very important issue.

"It's early in the campaign season, and in the end, the vote on this measure ... could be hard to predict," stated Baldassare. "Overall views on gay marriage have not budged in a year. Californians who plan to vote for Proposition 8 appear to hold that view with greater intensity than the opposition – which means they are very motivated to vote."

Geoff Kors, executive director of Equality California, the statewide LGBT lobbying group that is spearheading the fight to defeat Prop 8, called the latest polling results "heartening." But he cautioned the numbers could reverse next month, as the Protect Marriage side pushing Prop 8 will begin airing television ads throughout the state. [See story, page 2.]

"We believe Californians oppose treating the community differently and oppose eliminating a fundamental civil right - the right of same-sex couples to marry," said Kors. "We also know the other side just bought a substantial media buy in virtually every media market. They are not waiting until October, as is typical, but are going on air in September to spread lies about Prop 8 to mislead the voters."

Jennifer Kerns, the spokeswoman for the Protect Marriage campaign, the proponents behind Prop 8, said, "We believe polling numbers are more aligned with the recent results of the Los Angeles Times poll and Survey USA poll, which shows that Proposition 8 has a slight lead. In the past, support for our side has been underestimated."

"We do agree with Baldassare when he says it's early in the season," Kerns added. "We plan to run a campaign to aggressively get our message out to voters."

The PPIC findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,001 California adult residents interviewed from August 12-19. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish, and the sampling error for the 1,047 likely voters is plus or minus 3 percent.

The survey found that 66 percent of Democratic and 59 percent of independent likely voters are against Prop 8. A majority of Republicans, 60 percent, support it. Those numbers differ from the July Field Poll, which found only 63 percent of Democrats are against Prop 8.

Interestingly, the PPIC poll found less Republican support for the anti-gay measure than the Field Poll's 68 percent among GOP voters. More concerning is the drop among decline-to-state voters who oppose Prop 8; the Field Poll had found that 66 percent of independents were against the measure.

Kors, however, chalked up the differences to the fact that two different polling firms conducted the surveys.

"I think every poll is asking different questions, and when you have different polling firms asking questions, it is hard to know what it means," said Kors. "I do think we are seeing a continuing opposition to eliminating the right of same-sex couples to marry. And I think that is a bipartisan message."